+Forex: Dynamic Range Indicator

Sitting tight and focusing on the dynamic forex market is not an easy job. Moreover, you have to consider a lot of factors for your analysis. Consider using Range Band Indicator, the technical indicator from Traderpulse. https://traderpulse.com/most-powerful-indicator-for-metatrader-range-band/

Sitting tight and focusing on the dynamic forex market is not an easy job. Moreover, you have to consider a lot of factors for your analysis. Consider using Range Band Indicator, the technical indicator from Traderpulse. https://traderpulse.com/most-powerful-indicator-for-metatrader-range-band/ submitted by traderpulse to u/traderpulse [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Part III
  • Squeezes and other risks
  • Market positioning
  • Bet correlation
  • Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Squeezes and other risks

We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.

Events

Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.

Squeezes

Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.

There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.

Incredible event
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.

Asymmetric losses

Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.

Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.

Market positioning

We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.

A carry trade position clear-out in action
Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful.
The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT").
This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market.
Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy.
You can find the data online for free and download it directly here.

Raw format is kinda hard to work with

However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”.

But you can easily get visualisations
You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful.
Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information.
As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning.
For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back?
A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity.
For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?”
In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit.
If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.

Bet correlation

Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are.
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.
Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates
For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem.
Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue.

Chart from TradingView
So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together.
The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each.
There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio.
A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance.
But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done?
For example:
  • You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
  • You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
  • You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
  • You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return.
The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?

Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction.
It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade.
Flat is a position.
Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it.
Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month.

Be strict with yourself and walk away
Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first.
Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period.
Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture.
Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal.
When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.

That's a wrap on risk management

Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback.
Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results.
Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below.
News Trading Part I
  • Introduction
  • Why use the economic calendar
  • Reading the economic calendar
  • Knowing what's priced in
  • Surveys
  • Interest rates
  • First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
  • Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
  • Data surprise index
  • Using recent events to predict future reactions
  • Buy the rumour, sell the fact
  • The mysterious 'position trim' effect
  • Reversals
  • Some key FX releases
***

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit: What you need to know to start Forex trading.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit: What you need to know to start Forex trading.

FOREX Strategies

What are FOREX Strategies?
https://preview.redd.it/ihmphstzguv51.jpg?width=960&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=81f6b73c367d8695605514f8d32aaf3e2aeabc6e
You may have noticed that most of people confuse the terminology and refer to FOREX Strategies in the wrong way. There are methodologies, systems, strategies, and techniques. The most effective methodology is Price Language (Trend Tracking). Combined with a correct reading of mass psychology presented by the charts.
We know that in the Stock Markets there are thousands of strategies. FOREX, like the rest of the markets, presents you with the opportunity to apply similar strategies to win consistently. Taking advantage of repetitive psychological patterns.
First, the Price Language methodology has created great fortunes in FOREX, and the next fortune may be yours. But this methodology must be implemented within a framework of advanced concepts of Markets. Without forgetting the basics. And working hard day by day.
Second, a strategy is a set of parameters and techniques that together give you the advantage to act in any situation. Thus for example in war, generals have attack strategies and counterattack strategies.
FOREX strategies alike are entry strategies and exit strategies. All beginners should know these FOREX strategies for beginners. That way you will get a general idea of ​​the game and understand that trading is a war against the Market and its Specialists. Only applying FOREX strategies revealed by the same Specialists and using their own techniques,
... you can survive in this war.
Do not fall into the trap of the many "systems" and "methods" that are offered on the internet about operating in the FOREX Market. They just don't work in the long run. They are strategies based on indicators for the most part. Using rigid parameters. That if they can work and give profitability during a certain period of time, they will always reach a breaking point when the market changes its dynamics.
Instead, take advantage of your precious time and learn the Language of Price or Price Action.
The Language methodology will allow you to adapt to each new phase of the Market. If you combine this knowledge with the appropriate psychological concepts, you can live comfortably from speculation in FOREX.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit - Basic FOREX Strategies

You have two basic FOREX strategies, one entry, and one exit. Both follow a general strategy that helps you capitalize on the collective behaviors of the Market. That is, of the total of participating speculators.
This behavior causes the formation of cycles that repeat over and over again. Driven by the basic emotions (uncertainty, greed, and panic) of the speculators involved that can be taken advantage of with the aforementioned FOREX strategies. Specialists identify these emotions in the order flow and capitalize on these events every hour, every day, and every month.
Basic FOREX Strategies - The Price Cycle
These repetitive cycles consist of 4 phases:
  1. Accumulation
  2. Upward trend
  3. Distribution
  4. Downward trend
https://preview.redd.it/6dvk2w0pduv51.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3ab65ca4eab6d20174b3327b862d8b59dcc13b7
The two trends can be easily identified by their notorious breakdown. And the two areas of uncertainty (accumulation and distribution), due to their notorious range trajectories.
This general behavior determines the core of our FOREX strategies.
You buy when the price of a pair has broken and has come out of one of its congestion formations (accumulation or distribution). You implement one of the Forex strategies, in this case, the entry one.
The multi-time technique will help you find the point of least risk when entering your initial buy or sell order. In the same way and using the same strategy but this time to close your position, the multiple timing technique will also show you how to close your operation obtaining the highest possible profit.
The most consistent way to extract profits in the market is by trading the start of trends within a cycle . Once confirmed by their respective breaks from the areas of uncertainty. This is the mother of all FOREX strategies . And in a market that operates 24 hours, we have more frequent cycles and therefore more opportunities.

Forex Trading Strategies Reddit - Advanced Forex Strategies

There are many advanced FOREX strategies that are generally used by professional speculators working for large financial firms.
Among these firms are banks, Investment Fund managers and Hedge Fund managers. The latter is an investment modality similar to Investment Funds, with the difference that Hedge Funds use more complex investment strategies. Its operations are more oriented to aggressive speculations in the short and medium-term.
Among the most common strategies is hedging (hedging), carry trade, automated systems based on quantum mathematics. And a large number of combinations between the different option strategies.

The Carry Trade

The central idea of ​​Carry Trade is to buy a pair in which the base currency has a considerably higher interest rate than the quoted currency. To earn the difference in rates regardless of whether the price of the pair rises or falls.
Suppose we buy a $ 100,000 lot of AUDJPY, which according to the rates on the chart would turn out to be the ideal instrument in this example to use the Forex carry trade strategy.
As our capital is in US dollars we have to assume for our example, the following quotes necessary to perform the place calculations:
AUD / JPY = 80.00 USD / JPY = 85.00
What happens internally in your broker is this.
  1. By placing as collateral $ 1,000 of your $ 50,000 of capital (assumed for this example), deposited in your account, you have access to $ 100,000 virtual (this is what is known as leverage); that is, you put in $ 1,000 and your broker lends you 99,000.
  2. With those $ 100,000 virtual dollars, your broker borrows on your behalf ¥ 8,500,000 Japanese yen (85 × 100,000) at 0.1% annual interest from a Japanese bank.
  3. With those ¥ 8,500,000 Japanese yen, your broker buys A $ 106,250 Australian dollars (8,500,000 / 80) and deposits it in an Australian bank where it receives 4.5% annual interest on your behalf.
  4. One year later (and regardless of the profit or loss generated by the pair's movement), your profit will be the difference between the AUD rate and the JPY rate, that is:
Profit = (AUD rate) - (JPY rate) - (costs of the 2 currency exchanges) Profit = (4.5%) - (0.1%) - (0.1% to 1%)
The great advantage of carry trade FOREX strategies is that this percentage profit is applied to the $ 100,000 of the standard lot; the broker transfers all of the profit to you, even if you only contributed $ 1,000. On the other hand, if you carry out the inverse of this operation, this benefit of the Forex carry trade becomes a cost (swap), and you assume it completely.
Remember that FOREX carry trade strategies are recommended for pairs with considerable interest rate differences, such as the one we have just seen in our example.
These FOREX strategies should also not be used in isolation. The idea is that through technical analysis you identify when would be the ideal time to enter the market using your carry trade Forex strategy and multiply your profits considerably.

What FOREX Strategies Do Hedge Funds Use?

The FOREX strategies used by large fund managers do not constitute an advantage in terms of percentage results for them, nor do they constitute a competitive disadvantage for you.
The vast majority of them fail because of their big egos. In fact, there was a firm made up of great financial geniuses, including 2 winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics, who developed a strategy based on quantum mathematical calculations.
With an initial base capital of about 3 billion dollars, and after 3 successful years obtaining annual returns of over 40%, the firm Long-Term Capital Management, begins its fourth year with losses. To counteract these losses the geniuses decide to multiply the initial capital several times, while the losses continued.
The year closed with the bankruptcy of the fund, and with a total accumulated loss of 1 trillion dollars, due to the great leverage used. And all for not admitting that the FOREX Strategies of Long Term Capital Management were not in line with the dynamics of the Market.
There are an overwhelming number of opportunities in the stock markets to make money interpreting the Language of Price.
You don't need to use complex "advanced" strategies that have been created to handle hundreds or billions of dollars.
The reasons for using these FOREX strategies are very different from what a "retail trader" pursues with his small speculation business.
As you can see, you should not worry about wanting to integrate any of these advanced strategies into your arsenal. They are only beneficial for managing hundreds or billions of dollars, where the return parameters are very different when you handle small amounts of capital.
Do not worry about collecting hundreds of free FOREX strategies that circulate on the internet, that great accumulation of mediocre information will only serve to confuse you and waste your valuable time.
Spend that time learning Price Action,
… And you will always be one step behind the Specialists, identifying each new Market condition, and anticipating the vast majority of reversals of all prices.
Ironically, the most successful fund managers indicate that their most profitable trades are those based on the basic trend-following strategies of the Price Language. The same ones that you will learn in this Free Course.
Dedicate yourself to perfecting them and believe me you won't need anything else. As long as you have good risk management, taking into consideration the following points ...

Styles of Investments in FOREX

The Investment FOREX long term is not recommended for small investors like you and me. If we take into account the term investing literally as large investors do who buy a financial product today to sell it years later.
We both have a better niche in the short and medium-term.
You may have noticed that the big multi-year trends in the Forex Market do exist. But minor swings within a big trend are usually very wide.
These minor movements allow us to easily double and triple the annual return of the big general trend, motivating most traders to speculate in the short and medium-term.
These minor oscillations or trends that occur within the large multi-year trends owe their occurrence mainly to two reasons.
First, the FOREX Market presents 3 sessions a day each in different cities of the world with different time zones (Asia, Europe, and America). This causes more frequent trend changes than in the rest of the stock markets.
Second, the purpose for which it was created also plays a role. The modern Foreign Exchange Market, since its inception in 1972, was conceived by the global financial system as a tool for speculation. To obtain benefits in the short and medium-term (from several days to 1 year).
These two points are basically the reasons why we observe the immense speed with which the FOREX market changes trends.
For example, for those who live in America, in the early morning (Europe) the EURUSD pair may be on the rise, in the morning or afternoon (America) it may be down, and then finally at night (Asia) it may return to the rise.

Define your Own Style for your FOREX Investments

One of the first decisions you will have to make is to choose your style as a trader or investor.
There are 4 types of well-defined styles.
Most professional traders tend to have multiple styles, although they always identify with one primary style for their FOREX investments. Study the characteristics of the 4 main styles to make your investments in FOREX :
1. Long Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per month to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 year to 5 years.
2. Medium Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per week to their investments in Forex. The period of an open position ranges from 1 month to 1 year.
3. Short Term: recommended for anyone who is going to enter the market for the first time, or who already has a certain time operating in the long and medium-term, showing constant profits, and who can dedicate a minimum of one hour per day to your investments in FOREX. The period of an open position ranges from 1 day to 1 month.
4. Intraday : recommended only for people with a fairly solid earnings record in the short term, and with a capital greater than $ 50,000. As we have noted, this option constitutes a full-time job.
People who start investing in FOREX , should start executing short-term (weeks) and medium-term (months) transactions only, and not pay attention to intraday oscillations (day trading).
If you are interested in being an intraday speculator, I recommend that you first exhaust at least a year doing operations in the short and medium-term to assimilate the correct strategies and to develop the necessary mentality to carry out this work.
The second option would be to participate in some kind of intensive training.
I remind you that self-educating is almost impossible in speculation. You are likely to accumulate a lot of knowledge by reading books and attending courses. But you will probably never learn to make money with all the incomplete "systems" circulating on the internet.

Mistakes to Avoid When Looking for Your Style

Many people who are new to FOREX investments make the mistake of combining these styles, which is a key to failure.
I recommend that if you are not getting the results you expected by adopting one of these styles, do not try to change it. The problem sure is not in the style, but in your strategies or in your psychology.
A successful investor is able to make a profit in any longer trading time than he is used to. I explain. If you are already a profitable operator in the short term, it is very likely that you will also be profitable in the medium and long term,
… As long as you can interpret the Language of Price or Price Action.
In the opposite case, the same would not happen. If you were a medium-term trader, you would need time to adjust to the intraday. The reality is that long, medium and short term traders have very similar personalities. The intraday trader is completely different.

The Myth of the Intraday in Investments in FOREX

If you are already successful in the short, medium and long term, you will notice that the sacrifice and the hours necessary in front of the computer to operate intraday is much greater. The intraday style will be useful to increase your account if it is less than USD $ 100,000 in a very short time in exchange for 8 to 12 hours a day of hard work but ...
You must first develop the necessary skills to operate the intraday.
The ideal is to combine all the styles to get more out of the Market and carry out more effective transactions and have a diversification in your investments in FOREX.
There are intraday traders that are very successful, but the reality is that there are very few in the world that make a profit year after year. If you want to become an intraday, you just have to prepare yourself properly through intensive training.
Otherwise, I recommend that you don't even think about educating yourself to adopt the intraday style. It is not necessary to go against a probability of failure greater than 99%. Unless
... your ego is greater than your common sense.
The main reason why this style of investments in FOREX is not recommended for the vast majority of us "retail investors" (the official term "retail traders"), is the high operational cost.
The real commissions in this market range between $ 2.0 and $ 2.50 for each lot of 100,000 virtual units. This means that a complete operation (opening and closing) is approximately $ 5.00, for each standard lot traded ($ 100,000 virtual).
Another fundamental reason is the advent of robotic traders (HFT = High-Frequency Trading), which tend to manipulate the market in the shorter intraday swings. Please do not confuse HFTs with automated systems that we find daily on the internet, and that can be purchased for a few hundred dollars and often for free on FOREX forums / groups.
These HFTs to which I refer, they are effective. They cost millions of dollars and have been developed by the large Wall Street financial firms to manage their investments in FOREX.
The reality of the intraday trader is that you execute orders for large lots at the same time, to profit from the smallest movements in the market. It is an activity based on reflexes. The slightest oversight or distraction can turn into a catastrophe for your FOREX investments.
I recommend that you start investing in FOREX using slow time periods such as H4 or Daily. For some reason, all Goldman Sachs intraday FOREX investments are made with algorithms.

Finally…

To choose your style as a trader and manage your investments in FOREX, first determine what your degree of experience is, analyze the points mentioned below and the rest you will discover when you execute your first operations.
The points that will affect your decision are:
  • Capital
  • Time available each day
  • Level of Experience
  • Personality
Discovering your style is a search process. For some it will be a long way to find the right time frame that matches their personality. Don't be put off by the falls. After all, those who continue the path despite the falls are the ones who reach the destination.
And I hope you are one of those who get up over and over again. The next lesson will boost your confidence when you discover the main reason that moves currencies ...

Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading Reddit

The fundamental analysis in Forex is used mostly by long-term investors. Players as we saw in the styles of operators, start a negotiation today, to close it years later.
I always emphasize the importance that the mass media give to this type of analysis to distract the great mass of participants.
It is all part of a great mass psychological manipulation. For centuries the ignorance of the masses has been organized before the great movements begin.
The important news are the macroeconomic reports published by the Central Banks and other government agencies destined for this work. All reports are made up. 99% of them are corrected months later.
These events are tools to justify fundamental analysis and price cleaning movements. Any silly headline does the job. With this, it is possible to absorb most of the existing liquidity, before the new trend phase is projected.

Reaction!

Except in rare situations, the result of an economic report of the fundamental analysis is generally already assimilated in the graph. In most cases, there are financial institutions that already have access to this information and are organizing and carrying out their operations in advance.
The phrase buy the rumor and sell the news is a very old adage on Wall Street. And its meaning contains what we have just explained. For the investor who can interpret the Language of Price, fundamental analysis is of little importance. Well, in general, their disclosure does not indicate that you have to take any action in your open trades , as long as your entry strategy provides you with a good support cushion.
This reality of fundamental analysis causes a lot of confusion for investors who lack in-depth knowledge of the forex market.

Macroeconomic Data

The data published in these events is irrelevant. Both for speculators and for the people in general. They are false. They lack reliability.
The price can go up or down with the same result of the data. The main ones are:
- Interest Rates - GDP (gross domestic product) - CPI (inflation) - ISM (manufacturing index) - NFP (payroll) - Double Deficits (deficit = fiscal + balance of payments)
If you are initiated, I recommend you avoid operating near these events. It is only a matter of having the time pending. Use the economic calendar for Fundamental Analysis of Forex Factory.
There is a probabilistic advantage in operating these fundamental analysis events. But it takes preparation, experience, and practice. They represent a way of diversifying in the general operation of a speculator.

The Uncertainty of Fundamental Analysis

On many occasions after the disclosure of an economic report, the price movement of the currency pair that is going to be affected tends to move in the opposite direction to the logic of the report.
I show you an example of a fundamental analysis report. Imagine that the EUR / USD pair is trading at 1.2500, and the FED (US Federal Reserve) issues a statement announcing that it has just raised inter-bank interest rates from 0.25 points to 0.75 points. Very positive news for the US dollar that logically implies an appreciation of the currency and consequently an instantaneous collapse of the EUR / USD pair (up the dollar and down the euro)
However, minutes after the release of said fundamental analysis report, the pair after effectively collapsing to 1.2400, returns and returns to its levels prior to the report (1.2500). This situation is very common , but it is not so easy to identify it when it is occurring, but after the damage is done.
Traps like these devour the accounts of beginners who approach the market with little experience, with weak strategies, and especially with very little experience.
That is why I reiterate that you forget the fundamental analysis for now. Just keep in mind when operating, that there is no publication scheduled nearby. Just check the economic calendar for the day and forget about the numbers. Let the economists mess around with the data.

FOREX Market Correlation

The Forex market correlation exists between pairs with similar "base" currencies and not always under the same circumstances. The correlation in the Forex market that is most followed and that has the greatest impact on fundamental analysis is that of the US dollar (USD).
The USD is the most traded monetary unit with a volume greater than 80% with respect to the rest of the currencies. This fact determines why their correlation is the most important, the most followed, and perhaps the only one worth following in the fundamental macro analysis.
The 7 major pairs are usually in sync . These 7 pairs all include the USD and present a fundamental analysis correlation almost 75% of the time. Influencing the rest of the currency pairs.

Advantages of the FOREX Market Correlation

In the fundamental analysis the most basic FOREX correlation is the following. When the USD appreciates, the USD / CAD, USD / CHF, and USD / JPY pairs tend to go up in price. This indicates that the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Swiss franc (CHF), and the Japanese yen (JPY) are losing value against the USD.
We must bear in mind that this correlation does not occur 100% of the time. In fact, the JPY generally tends to move in the opposite direction , since in recent decades this currency has been used as a source of financing to invest in other financial instruments.
On the other side is the FOREX market correlation that generates a movement almost in unison in the other 4 major pairs EUR / USD, GBP / USD, AUD / USD, and NZD / USD. These tend to fall in price, homologous the appreciation of the USD. But not always.
In this case the fundamental analysis correlation works most of the time, between 65 and 85% of the time. Small differences are noted in the extent that each of these pairs experiences.
There is also a correlation in the secondary FOREX market, where the pairs of all currencies that do not include the USD participate, but I recommend you not to waste time on them for now. There are more important things about the Language of Price to know first.

FOREX Commodity Correlation

In this part I will explain to you in a basic way the Correlation Commodities - FOREX of the fundamental analysis.
There are three currencies that have a direct correlation with commodities. They are usually called: "COMDOLLS" which is short for "Commodities Dollars" (Commodities Dollars), since all three obey the dollar denomination. These are:
- The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) - The Australian Dollar (AUD) - The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
These three currencies make up the group of the 8 largest together with the euro, the pound, the yen, the franc and the US dollar. Together, they merge to produce the major pairs traded in the FOREX Foreign Exchange Market.
The FOREX Commodity Correlation has an affinity in most cases greater than 75%. And each of them has its different raw material of correlation. You will notice that the NZD and the AUD are two currencies that act practically in unison. Both present minimal discrepancies in their fluctuations in the short, medium and long term.
This is mainly because their economies are very similar and their economic and fiscal policies are too. Their main production items also show great similarities, despite the fact that the Australian economy is much larger than the New Zealand economy.
The raw materials that follow the movement of the AUD are mainly gold and copper. If you put the history of these three quotes during the last decade of the year 2,000 together on the same chart, you will notice a very similar upward movement between the three quotes. Pure correlation of fundamental analysis.
This strong correlation with commodities in the metals area for the AUD has provided Australia with an economic advantage enviable over the other major powers that have seen their currencies devalue sharply against the AUD. At the same time, they experience a constant decrease in the purchasing power of their citizens.
The NZD maintains a correlation with raw materials related to agriculture and livestock, mainly including milk and its derivatives. It is one of the countries that dominates the world export of these economic items, and also has important exports of metals , although in smaller quantities than Australia.
Finally, you have a correlation with raw materials in the energy area. For historical reasons the CAD, which is not the largest oil producer in the world, but an important supplier to the largest consumer that is the US, has seen its currency oscillate in line with oil prices.
To make long-term investments in the Foreign Exchange Market, it is necessary to take into consideration at least one Commodity Correlation - FOREX in your fundamental analysis.

Forex Technical Analysis Reddit

The technical analysis is the methodology that interprets the movements of the price. Specialists look for liquidity to fund their business. The repetition of the strategies used by the specialists in their work generate repetitive patterns.
If you were an analyst, you would develop the visual ability to identify such patterns on a graph. If you were a programmer you would quantify them mathematically using complex formulas.
And if you could learn to interpret the Language of Price, you would have the ability to anticipate 90% of all movements that occur on a chart. And in this business, anticipating is what will make you money.
Market prices are reflected and framed on a horizontal time axis and a vertical price axis. Prices go up or down according to the aggressiveness of the participating operators. In an efficient or balanced market these oscillations should be imperceptible.
But in reality this is not the case, since the Market works thanks to the digital printing of hundreds of billions of units of paper money systematically distributed by the Central Banks through the banking system. These resources serve as a tool to manipulate 100% of the movements that occur in the FOREX Market.
Are you looking for Technical Indicators? All technical indicators were created from the 70's. How do you think that for more than 200 years the speculators of the past accumulated great wealth?
With the Language of Price. The best timing is given by the price itself. Indicator-generated entry signals usually occur at the wrong time.
The basis of technical analysis is human psychology. Unfortunately, human beings are not perfect and are loaded with emotions that dominate their behavior in similar situations, creating repetitive and highly predictable behavior when it occurs in masses.
The study of technical analysis through indicators and subjective training, originates and shapes the collective thinking on which all the traps that specialists execute every day to maintain their business are designed. If the majority won, the Market would cease to exist.
Although you already know that the patterns are not generated by the masses , but the repetitive behavior of the Specialists in the face of the action response of the masses. It is very easy for speculaists, because they can see everyone's orders in their books.
And they also exert a great influence on the decisions of the masses through the mass media. It is what I call the war between the Egg and the Stone , if you hit me you win and if I hit you also you win.

The Deception of Modern Technical Analysis

Through the centuries thousands of people have been able to extract great benefits from the financial markets by applying the basic strategies of technical analysis and the psychology of the Price Language.
More than 200 years ago when the markets began to operate officially, fundamental analysis predominated, which was only used by large financial institutions. As this analysis tool began to become popular, these institutions began to apply the strategies of technical analysis.
In recent decades and with the massification of internet technology, technical analysis has begun to be handled by anyone who has a computer with internet access. The same financial institutions, which have been present for more than a century and as a result of this overcrowding , establish a strategy to confuse and misinform about the true strategies of technical analysis.
This has been accomplished in the following manner. Currently there are hundreds, if not thousands of technical indicators that have been developed by so-called "gurus" of technical analysis and that sell their magic indicators packed in a "system" or "method" that usually cost thousands of dollars, or simply with the publication of a book with which they generate large profits. Double benefit.
The aim is to confuse the initiates in speculation and create the collective mentality that will originate the same behaviors over and over again. About 95% of these new entrants completely lose all the capital they invest in their early stages as investors.
Leaving them with a negative experience and creating the idea and the image that financial markets are an exclusive area for geniuses with high academic levels and that only they can produce returns in the markets year after year.
The initiate, having lost all his original capital, turns to these “gurus” for help and teachings. You spend more capital on the products they offer you and the cycle repeats itself . Obviously, the vast majority do not relapse and completely forget to re-engage in the stock markets.
I hope you have not been a victim of this drama.
Now I will show you the simplicity of a FOREX technical analysis , without the need to resort to any indicator as a tool to determine an effective entry or exit strategy when planning your operations.

The Price Cycle

Previously you studied in the FOREX strategies lesson, that the typical price cycle when it is reflected in a graph, presents four very specific phases and very easy to identify if you perform a technical analysis with common sense . These are:
  • Accumulation
  • Bullish trend
  • Distribution
  • Bearish trend
Remember also that the most effective way to constantly extract profits in the markets is by taking advantage of phases 2 and 4 (the trends). Combined with a correct reading of the collective behavior of the masses of speculators interpreting the Language of Price.
You will be surprised by the simplicity with which thousands of people around the world and over the centuries have accumulated large sums of money by drawing a few simple lines and applying responsible risk management with their capital.

How to Identify Trends?

Being able to determine the trend phases within the price cycle is the essence of technical analysis since it is these two phases that provide you with the probabilistic advantage you need to operate in the markets and obtain constant returns.
In the most plain and simple language, in the world of technical analysis, there are only two types of formations: trends and ranges.
The trends, in turn, can be bullish if they go up, or bearish if they go down. The ranges, on the other hand, can be accumulation if they are at the beginning of the cycle, or distribution if they are in the high part of the cycle. As I had indicated in the topic of FOREX strategies when describing the price cycle.
This sounds more like a play on words, but I will show you the practical definition to simplify your life and then you will apply these definitions on the graph so that everything makes more sense to you.
  • Bullish trend: a succession of major highs and major lows
  • Bearish trend: a succession of minor highs and minor lows
  • Floor Range: equal highs and varied lows
  • Ceiling Range: equal minimums and varied maximums
https://preview.redd.it/vvmsshf0guv51.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=c321679a7dcc03f7184778be86379ef442fddf91
Some key points from the graph:
  • The start of this big uptrend was detected when the last high (thick green line) of the previous downtrend was broken to the upside, ending the succession of lower highs, while exiting the lateral floor formation.
  • The succession of major lows in the uptrend (thin blue lines)
  • The succession of major highs in the uptrend (thin green lines)
  • The end of the uptrend was detected when the last low (thick blue line) of the uptrend was broken to the downside, ending the succession of higher lows, while exiting the lateral ceiling formation.
A tool that will help you sharpen your technical eye and identify trends on the chart is the Currency Scanner. This application is very effective and will provide you with a much-needed boost in your operations to identify reliable trends. At first, we are not sure how reliable a trend is. You will receive great help to find opportunities with the Currency Scanner .

The Common Sense, The Less Common of Senses

The central idea of ​​technical analysis consists in determining the price situation of a market, that is, in which phase of the pattern of its cycle it is currently conjugated with the collective thinking of the masses and the possible traps that the market would have prepared to remove. the capital at stake by the public.
To carry out a precise technical analysis, you will use the support and resistance lines, which can be static (horizontal) or dynamic (projecting an angle with respect to the horizontal axis).
Your common sense prevails here.
If you show a 10-year-old a chart, they will be able to tell you if the price is going up or down. You will most likely have no idea how to draw the lines, but you will be able to establish the general trend. Simply using your common sense.
By introducing indicators and other gadgets , the simplicity and effectiveness of the technical analysis created by your common sense evaporates.
The following graph conceptually shows you all the possible situations in which you could draw these lines to carry out your technical analysis of the place. You can clearly observe a downtrend delimited by its dynamic trend line and an uptrend on the right side with its respective dynamic delimitation.
https://preview.redd.it/5iehg0r6guv51.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=84c265a5d35da7ea970792c4bf40fe20b33bd8bd

Forex Charts Analysis

I want to remind you that the formations or patterns that develop on the charts (triangles, wedges, pennants, boxes, etc.) only work to execute trades that have initially been confirmed by the static support and resistance lines and to read the collective thinking of the masses.
Chart formations work, but you must know the Language of Price to determine when the Specialists will exploit a chartist figure, or when they will allow it to run. In fact, you will learn with the Language that you can operate a chart figure in any direction.
Much of the "mentalization" that the masses receive is to believe that the figures are made to be respected. Which is an inefficient way of working. Simply because you could wait days or months for a perfect chart figure to occur in order to perform a reliable trade. When in fact there are dozens every day.

Japanese Candles

Of all the tools you have to carry out technical analysis, perhaps the best known and most popular is the Japanese technique of candles (candlesticks).
Candles are mainly used to identify reversal points on the chart without resorting to confirmation of horizontal trend lines and only using a previous bar or candle breaks.
Its correct use is subject to a multi-time analysis (multiple temporalities) and a general evaluation of the context proposed by the market in general at the time of each scenario.
Later I will show you all the important details to take into account so that you use Japanese candles in a simple and very effective way.
Do not forget ... Trading in your beginnings based on formations (chartism) and candlestick patterns conjugated with hundreds of tools and technical indicators, constitutes the perfect path to your failure. Before using any strategy or technique I recommend you focus on learning the Price Language, which includes 3 basic things:
  • The Price: structure and dynamics
  • Market sentiment: relative strength, external shocks, etc.
  • Psychology: flexible mindset and risk acceptance
After you acquire this solid foundation, I guarantee that you will be able to trade any trading system that exists, any strategy, technique or chart figure in a profitable and consistent manner.
Specialists make money every day at the expense of the collective behavior caused by the use of these strategies and techniques. With which you will only manage to lose your capital and your time by putting the cart in front of the horse.
People who do the opposite, at best become,
... Philosophers of Speculation, or indocile Robot Assistants or Expert Advisors.
To make money in any market condition, range or trend, you must use the technical analysis based on the Price Language and combine it with a correct psychological reading of the price. This knowledge can only be acquired through proper education and lots of supervised practice. Like any other career in life.
I hope you've found this guide helpful!
submitted by kayakero to makemoneyforexreddit [link] [comments]

Crosspost: My first trading bot, now 4 months in development, started trading live last week and already gained 10%!

Backtest screenshot:
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submitted by solrac149 to algotradingcrypto [link] [comments]

Will Aussie repeat the hat trick? Forecast as of 03.11.2020

Will Aussie repeat the hat trick? Forecast as of 03.11.2020
The second quarter is likely to be the same as the second one. However, the disaster is not going to be so dramatic. If so, we have a pattern to trade the AUDUSD. Let us discuss the Australian dollar outlook and make up a trading plan.

Monthly Australian dollar fundamental analysis

What doesn't kill makes one stronger. The RBA’s monetary expansion should have crashed the Australian dollar. RBA not only cut the cash rate down to the all-time low of 0.1% but also boosted the purchases of assets with a maturity of 5-10 years within QE by AU$100 billion. The RBA has become one of the first to react to the second pandemic wave. However, the AUDUSD, instead of falling, surged up to the bottom of figure 71. Bloomberg experts anticipate such measures of the regulator, and the time for maneuver was not right. It is not wise to ease monetary policy on the day of the US presidential election, is it?
According to Philip Lowe, the increase of the QE size will support economic recovery amid lower costs of funding and exchange rate, as well as higher assets’ price than it would be in the opposite case. RBA must have tried to improve financial conditions, as the Fed did. It was one of the reasons for the US economic growth in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the US GDP should face a downturn because of the difficult epidemiological situation. Australia, on the contrary, has coped with the coronavirus through a strict lockdown in Victoria. So, Australia’s GDP can well go up.

Dynamics of COVID-19 cases in Australia


https://preview.redd.it/z0b18quhc0x51.jpg?width=629&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ed290b23768a625aba0bb3c0a891f975388ab309
Source: Trading Economics
According to the RBA forecasts, Australia’s GDP in the 2020/2021 financial year will expand by 6%, in 2021/2022 - by another 4%. The forecast for the unemployment peak has been cut from 10% to 8%. The core inflation will grow by 1% in 2021, and by 1.5% in 2022.
In addition to the domestic positive factors, foreign news also supports Aussie. Despite the disputes between Australia and China, which imposed tariffs on Australian barley, launched an anti-dumping investigation into Australian wine, and suspended imports of coal and lobsters from Australia, I believe that the trade relationships will be improved. China is the largest market for Australia. China’s economic growth by 1.9%, according to the IMF forecast, will support the AUDUSD bulls. Based on the yuan price changes, the AUDUSD looks undervalued.

Dynamics of AUDUSD and USDCNY


https://preview.redd.it/mqvioyaic0x51.jpg?width=634&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8db6d6a5debdaf671ce4902ce6fc43f2960f4ebb
Source: Trading Economics

Monthly AUDUSD trading plan

In general, market sentiment indicates that the fourth quarter for the global economy will be similar to the second one, although the disaster scale will be smaller. If so, we have a pattern to trade the Aussie. In late March, I recommended buying the Australian dollar in the range of $0.59-$0.62 amid the expectations of the V-shaped recovery of China’s economy, and this trading idea was winning. Now, there is another chance to repeat the hat trick provided that Joe Biden wins the election.
Biden also promises to attack China for its economic and human rights violations, the US-China relations are going to improve. As a result, the entire Pacific region will benefit. Australia, with its successful COVID-19 strategy, is no exception. If Biden wins, buy the AUDUSD with targets at 0.729 and 0.733.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/will-aussie-repeat-the-hat-trick-forecast-as-of-03112020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423

submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Aussie goes against the wind. Forecast as of 05.10.2020

Aussie goes against the wind. Forecast as of 05.10.2020

Monthly Australian dollar fundamental analysis

Hope for the best but do the rest. Although the major drivers of the AUDUSD 30% rally up from the March low have been the rapid recovery of China’s economy and the increase in the global risk appetite, the Australian dollar has domestic drivers as well. Australia efficiently manages the pandemic, and the government is willing to expand the fiscal stimulus. Australia’s Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is willing to provide money until the labor market returns to the full employment state. It is about the unemployment rate of 5%. The current unemployment rate is 6.8%, and it may grow to 8%-10%. It will hardly drop back to 5% before 2022.
Investors expect the Treasury to boost the fiscal stimulus. As a result, the net debt burden will increase to AU$712 billion or to 38% of the GDP. At the same time, the national debt ceiling will be increased above AU$1.1 trillion, and the income tax hike, planned for 2022, will be delayed. In the USA, the national debt exceeds 100% of GDP, in the euro-area, it is close to 100%, the Japanese government debt is more than 200%. Canberra can afford additional stimulus. Besides, the expansion of government bonds issue will support the capital inflow in Australia and strengthen the Aussie. Australia’s government bond rates are the highest among the countries issuing the G10 currencies.

Dynamics of Australia’s net debt, % of the GDP


Source: Bloomberg
Carry trades and high investment rating of Australia’s securities support and will support the AUDUSD bulls amid the high risk appetite and low volatility. That is the reason for the AUD correlation with the US stock indices. The turmoil in the S&P 500 market ahead of the US presidential election will suggest the AUDUSD consolidation.

Dynamics of AUDUSD and S&P 500


Source: Trading Economics
In addition to the size of the additional fiscal stimulus, investors are focused on the RBA's willingness to expand the volume of monetary support. In September, the RBA officials discussed such measures as the interest-rate cut down to 0.1%, purchasing bonds with longer maturities than currently under QE, negative borrowing costs, and even FX interventions. The latter two options are aggressive, and the regulator will hardly resort to such measures. But it is likely to cut the interest rate by 12 basis points. The derivatives market suggests it will happen already this year.

Monthly AUDUSD trading plan

Expectations of monetary expansion is a bearish factor for the AUD. However, I don’t think the RBA will do it in October. It is likely to leave the door open for the interest rate cut in the future and set the Aussie bulls back using verbal interventions. The RBA will hardly turn the uptrend down, so, its dovish stance will give a chance to buy the pair of the price fall. Following ht consolidation in the range of 0.695-0.735, the AUDUSD is likely to continue its rally up to 0.76 and 0.79.

For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/aussie-goes-against-the-wind-forecast-as-of-05102020/ ?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

EUR/USD forecast: Dollar generates a new idea

EUUSD forecast: Dollar generates a new idea

Fundamental US dollar forecast for today

Investors will focus on the US presidential election in autumn

Markets are driven by investment ideas, which are generated first, then investors open positions, and finally, close them if something goes wrong. In spring, everybody was tracking the global risk appetite and the changes in the S&P500 value, to buy or sell the dollar pairs. In summer, they were focused on the divergence in the economic expansion between the euro area and the US, which sent the EUUSD to the highest level over the last two years. Once the market had had doubts about its efficiency, investors closed longs and sent the euro down.
The PMI report in August has ruined the idea of the leading performance of the euro-area GDP over the US growth. The PMI is thought to be a leading indicator for the GDP. The US composite PMI has been up to its eighteen-month high, and its European peer has fallen from 54.9 to 51.6, making the EUUSD bulls exit longs. The US economy is being reopened after the lockdown introduced in the spring; it is surprisingly resilient to the coronavirus epidemic going in the country. The Eurozone’s growth is slowing down amid the rise in the number of new COVID-19 cases in Germany, France, and Spain to the levels recorded in May, and even in April.

Dynamics of PMI



Source: Wall Street Journal
Also, there are problems in the euro-area labor market. So, the Forex analysts say that the European economy is more likely to have a W-shaped recovery, rather than a V-shaped one. The programs of the population retention in the labor force existing in the euro area do not encourage people to find new jobs. The labor market is dynamic when it goes through the phases of rising and fall. If the fall is artificially averted, can we expect the employment boom in 2021-2022? The actual unemployment level may not be at the official level of 7.8% but is likely to be above 9%, and in Spain, it can be close 20%. What will happen when the assistance programs are over?
In my opinion, things are not that bad. The growth in the new coronavirus cases in Europe results from the holiday season. Mostly young people are sick, most often asymptomatic, which explains the low number of hospitalizations and mortality. The GDP recovery will be slow both in the US and in the euro area, the markets need a fresh investment idea. It can well be the US presidential election. What is good for Donald Trump is good for the US dollar. Hence, the growing risks of Trump’s defeat will weigh on the USD.
Therefore, the EUUSD can roll down in the short-term. But, in the long-term, the euro uptrend is likely to resume. My idea about the middle-term consolidation in the range of 1.158-1.188 looks more and more promising. So, I still recommend buying the euro on the rebound from the supports at $1.173, $1.168, and $1.162.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/eurusd-forecast-dollar-generates-a-new-idea/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

EUR/USD forecast: Dollar multiplies predators

EUUSD forecast: Dollar multiplies predators

Fundamental U.S. dollar forecast for today

The only way to survive for an economy is to adapt to the pandemic

The more prey, the more predators. The increase in the number of predators reduces the population of prey, which, in turn, reduces the population of predators. The interaction of a pandemic and the economy is similar to the laws of nature, with the virus being the predator and the economy being the prey. The only way for the economy to survive is to adapt. It is difficult without a coronavirus vaccine. It may be proven by the drop in the U.S. unemployment claims below 1 million, which supports the US dollar.
Despite a positive reading, the US jobs market is far from the norm. Over the past three months, the economy has created 9 million new jobs, but this is only 43% of the 21 million lost in the March-April period. The number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits through regular state programs also decreased from 25 million to 15.5 million. However, this is more than two times more than the maximum recorded during the previous global financial crisis (6.6 million). The US jobs market urgently needs a fresh fiscal stimulus, but the Republicans and the Democrats can’t reach an agreement.

Dynamics of the U.S. unemployment rate


Source: Financial Times.
Donald Trump says too much aid package will keep Americans from returning to jobs. 82% of 62 experts polled by the Wall Street Journal do not agree. They say additional payments to unemployment benefits do the economy more good than harm, as they support consumer demand. The U.S. President doesn’t agree. Trump argues with the Democrats, linking the fiscal stimulus size with the canceling voting by mail in the 2020 presidential election.
The red-line policy influences all financial markets. Trump won’t benefit from a new round of the US-China trade war, as it would demonstrate that he has not achieved any progress in this area during his four years in power. Joe Biden says Trump’s policy concerning China is a failure. Trump wouldn’t support his opponent. Besides, the stock indexes, which indicate the efficiency of Trump’s policy, are likely to drop if the US imposes new import tariffs against China. China doesn’t fulfill its obligations under the phase 1 trade deal in full. But Beijing has an excuse, the pandemic. Everything can be improved. In 2021.
The escalation of the trade war would seriously hit the Chinese economy, whose recovery pace is slowing down. The domestic demand doesn’t meet the industrial production, which is indicated by a poor reading of China’s retail sales data in July.

Dynamics of China’s industrial production and retail sales



Source: Bloomberg
China could be an example of an economy adapts to the pandemic. The fact that it has problems suggests that the euro-area economy may also recover not as soon as the EUUSD bulls expect. Unless the pair breaks out the resistance at 1.188, it can enter the middle-term consolidation in the range of 1.158-1.188.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/eurusd-forecast-dollar-multiplies-predators/ ?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

3.3 How to implement strategies in M language

3.3 How to implement strategies in M language

Summary

In the previous article, we explained the premise of realizing the trading strategy from the aspects of the introduction of the M language , the basic grammar, the model execution method, and the model classification. In this article, we will continue the previous part, from the commonly used strategy modules and technologies. Indicators, step by step to help you achieve a viable intraday quantitative trading strategy.

Strategy Module


https://preview.redd.it/a4l7ofpuwxs41.png?width=1517&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f97ea5a7316edd434a47067d9b76c894577d01d

Stage Increase

Stage increase is calculating the percentage of current K line's closing price compare with previous N periods of closing price's difference. For example: Computing the latest 10 K-lines stage increases, can be written:
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CLOSE_0:=CLOSE; //get the current K-line's closing price, and save the results to variable CLOSE_0. CLOSE_10:=REF(CLOSE,10); //get the pervious 10 K-lines' closing price, and save the results to variable CLOSE_10 (CLOSE_0-CLOSE_10)/CLOSE_10*100;//calculating the percentage of current K line's closing price compare with previous N periods of closing price's difference. 

New high price

The new high price is calculated by whether the current K line is greater than N cycles' highest price. For example: calculating whether the current K line is greater than the latest 10 K-lines' highest price, can be written:
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HHV_10:=HHV(HIGH,10); //Get the highest price of latest 10 K-lines, which includes the current K-line. HIGH>REF(HHV_10,1); //Judge whether the current K-line's highest price is greater than pervious K-lines' HHV_10 value. 

Price raise with massive trading volume increase

For example: If the current K line's closing price is 1.5 times of the closing price of the previous 10 K-lines, which means in 10 days, the price has risen 50%; and the trading volume also increased more than 5 times of the pervious 10 K-lines. can be written:
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CLOSE_10:=REF(CLOSE,10); //get the 10th K-line closing price IS_CLOSE:=CLOSE/CLOSE_10>1.5; //Judging whether the current K Line closing price is 1.5 times greater than the value of CLOSE_10 VOL_MA_10:=MA(VOL,10); //get the latest 10 K-lines' average trading volume IS_VOL:=VOL>VOL_MA_10*5; //Judging whether the current K-line's trading volume is 5 times greater than the value of VOL_MA_10 IS_CLOSE AND IS_VOL; //Judging whether the condition of IS_CLOSE and IS_VOL are both true. 

Price narrow-shock market

Narrow-shock market means that the price is maintained within a certain range in the recent period. For example: If the highest price in 10 cycles minus the lowest price in 10 cycles, the result divided by the current K-line's closing price is less than 0.05. can be written:
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HHV_10:=HHV(CLOSE,10); //Get the highest price in 10 cycles(including current K-line) LLV_10:=LLV(CLOSE,10); //Get the lowest price in 10 cycles(including current K-line) (HHV_10-LLV_10)/CLOSE<0.05; //Judging whether the difference between HHV_10 and LLV_10 divided by current k-line's closing price is less than 0.05. 

Moving average indicates bull market

Moving Average indicates long and short direction, K line supported by or resisted by 5,10,20,30,60 moving average line, Moving average indicates bull market or bear market. can be written:
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MA_5:=MA(CLOSE,5); //get the moving average of 5 cycle closing price. MA_10:=MA(CLOSE,10);//get the moving average of 10 cycle closing price. MA_20:=MA(CLOSE,20);//get the moving average of 20 cycle closing price. MA_30:=MA(CLOSE,30);//get the moving average of 30 cycle closing price. MA_5>MA_10 AND MA_10>MA_20 AND MA_20>MA_30; //determine wether the MA_5 is greater than MA_10, and MA_10 is greater than MA_20, and MA_20 is greater than MA_30. 

Previous high price and its locations

To obtain the location of the previous high price and its location, you can use FMZ Quant API directly. can be written:
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HHV_20:=HHV(HIGH,20); //get the highest price of 20 cycle(including current K line) HHVBARS_20:=HHVBARS(HIGH,20); //get the number of cycles from the highest price in 20 cycles to current K line HHV_60_40:REF(HHV_20,40); //get the highest price between 60 cycles and 40 cycles. 

Price gap jumping

The price gap is the case where the highest and lowest prices of the two K lines are not connected. It consists of two K lines, and the price gap is the reference price of the support and pressure points in the future price movement. When a price gap occurs, it can be assumed that an acceleration along the trend with original direction has begun. can be written:
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HHV_1:=REF(H,1); //get the pervious K line's highest price LLV_1:=REF(L,1); //get the pervious K line's lowest price HH:=L>HHV_1; //judging wether the current K line's lowest price is greater than pervious K line's highest price (jump up) LL:=H1.001; //adding additional condition, the bigger of the price gap, the stronger the signal (jump up) LLL:=H/REF(L.1)<0.999; //adding additional condition, the bigger of the price gap, the stronger the signal (jump down) JUMP_UP:HH AND HHH; //judging the overall condition, whether it is a jump up JUMP_DOWN:LL AND LLL; //judging the overall condition, whether it is a jump down 

Common technical indicators

Moving average

https://preview.redd.it/np9qgn3ywxs41.png?width=811&format=png&auto=webp&s=39a401b5c9498a13d953678c0c452b3b8f6cbe2c
From a statistical point of view, the moving average is the arithmetic average of the daily price, which is a trending price trajectory. The moving average system is a common technical tool used by most analysts. From a technical point of view, it is a factor that affects the psychological price of technical analysts. The decision-making factor of thinking trading is a good reference tool for technical analysts. The FMZ Quant tool supports many different types of moving averages, as shown below:
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MA_DEMO:MA(CLOSE,5); // get the moving average of 5 cycle MA_DEMO:EMA(CLOSE,15); // get the smooth moving average of 15 cycle MA_DEMO:EMA2(CLOSE,10);// get the linear weighted moving average of 10 cycle MA_DEMO:EMAWH(CLOSE,50); // get the exponentially weighted moving average of 50 cycle MA_DEMO:DMA(CLOSE,100); // get the dynamic moving average of 100 cycle MA_DEMO:SMA(CLOSE,10,3); // get the fixed weight of 3 moving average of closing price in 10 cycle MA_DEMO:ADMA(CLOSE,9,2,30); // get the fast-line 2 and slow-line 30 Kaufman moving average of closing price in 9 cycle. 

Bollinger Bands


https://preview.redd.it/mm0lkv00xxs41.png?width=1543&format=png&auto=webp&s=a87bdb4feecf97cbeef423b935860bfea85ffe6d
Bollinger bands is also based on the statistical principle. The middle rail is calculated according to the N-day moving average, and the upper and lower rails are calculated according to the standard deviation. When the BOLL channel starts changing from wide to narrow, which means the price will gradually returns to the mean. When the BOLL channel is changing from narrow to wide, it means that the market will start to change. If the price is up cross the upper rail, it means that the buying power is enhanced. If the price down cross the lower rail, it indicates that the selling power is enhanced.
Among all the technical indicators, Bollinger Bands calculation method is one of the most complicated, which introduces the concept of standard deviation in statistics, involving the middle trajectory ( MB ), the upper trajectory ( UP ) and the lower trajectory ( DN ). luckily, you don't have to know the calculation details, you can use it directly on FMZ Quant platform as follows:
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MID:MA(CLOSE,100); //calculating moving average of 100 cycle, call it Bollinger Bands middle trajectory TMP2:=STD(CLOSE,100); //calculating standard deviation of closing price of 100 cycle. TOP:MID+2*TMP2; //calculating middle trajectory plus 2 times of standard deviation, call it upper trajectory BOTTOM:MID-2*TMP2; //calculating middle trajectory plus 2 times of standard deviation, call it lower trajectory 

MACD Indicator


https://preview.redd.it/9p3k7y42xxs41.png?width=630&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1b8078325fc142c1563a1cf1cc0f222a13e0bde
The MACD indicator is a double smoothing operation using fast (short-term) and slow (long-term) moving averages and their aggregation and separation. The MACD developed according to the principle of moving averages removes the defect that the moving average frequently emits false signals, and also retains the effect of the other good aspect. Therefore, the MACD indicator has the trend and stability of the moving average. It was used to study the timing of buying and selling stocks and predicts stock price change. You can use it as follows:

DIFF:EMA(CLOSE,10)-EMA(CLOSE,50); //First calculating the difference between short-term moving average and long-term moving average. DEA:EMA(DIFF,10); //Then calculating average of the difference. 
The above is the commonly used strategy module in the development of quantitative trading strategies. In addition, there are far more than that. Through the above module examples, you can also implement several trading modules that you use most frequently in subjective trading. The methods are the same. Next, we began to write a viable intraday trading strategy.

Strategy Writing

In the Forex spot market, there is a wellknown strategy called HANS123. Its logic are basically judging wether the price breaks through the highest or lowest price of the number of K lines after the market opening

Strategy logic

  • Ready to enter the market after 30 minutes of opening;
  • Upper rail = 30 minutes high after opening ;
  • Lower rail = 30 minutes low after opening ;
  • When the price breaks above the upper limit, buy and open the position;
  • When the price falls below the lower rail, the seller opens the position.
  • Intraday trading strategy, closing before closing;

Strategy code

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// Data Calculation Q:=BARSLAST(DATA<>REF(DATA,1))+1; //Calculating the number of period from the first K line of the current trading day to current k line, and assign the results to N HH:=VALUEWHEN(TIME=0930,HHV(H,Q)); //when time is 9:30, get the highest price of N cycles, and assign the results to HH LL:=VALUEWHEN(TIME=0930,LLV(L,Q)); //When time is 9:30, get the lowest price of N cycles, and assign the results to LL //Placing Orders TIME>0930 AND TIME<1445 AND C>HH,BK; //If the time is greater than 9:30 and lesser than 14:45, and the closing price is greater than HH, opening long position. TIME>0930 AND TIME<1445 AND C=1445,CLOSEOUT; //If the time is greater or equal to 14:45, close all position. //Filtering the signals AUTOFILTER; //opening the filtering the signals mechanism 

To sum up

Above we have learned the concept of the strategy module. Through several commonly used strategy module cases, we had a general idea of the FMZ Quant programming tools, it can be said that learning to write strategy modules and improve programming logic thinking is a key step in advanced quantitative trading. Finally, we used the FMZ Quant tool to implement the trading strategy according a classical Forex trading strategy.

Next section notice

Maybe there are still some confusion for some people, mainly because of the coding part. Don't worry, we have already thought of that for you. On the FMZ Quant platform, there is another even easier programming tool for beginners. It is the visual programming, let's learn it soon!
submitted by FmzQuant to CryptoCurrencyTrading [link] [comments]

Hello, new traders. Here are a few words from my four and a half years of experience.

Hey! I’m a full time currency and cryptocurrency trader, I need to point out a few major fallacies and misconceptions I frequently see in this community and others.
First up. If it’s your first year trading expect to fail. Actually, if there was a contract I could buy that’d pay me out if you ended up liquidating your account in the next 12 months, I’d literally bet on your failure. You need to immediately reduce your trading account to 1/10th of its original size for your first year of trading. Seriously, do it. You are betting that you can outperform billions of dollars of institutional order flow, typically with basic patterns or default setting indicators with no experience. Which brings me to my next point.
Your strategy is not your identity, stop treating what you use to trade as dogma. That indicator or pattern you’re using, can you tell me why it works? Not HOW to use it, but what fundamental paradigm it uses to accurately predict future price action. There are legitimate answers, but trying to use your indicators/patterns without understanding why is like driving across the country without knowing how to open or what’s inside the hood or your car. Sure, you’re going to get pretty far, but eventually it’ll break down and you won’t have a clue what to do, stranded and starving in the middle of the desert.
Chances are, while you were reading this you came up with one of three answers in your head as to why your indicatopattern works. Let me guess. “Everyone else uses it, it’s made me money so far, it’s natures law (for you Fibonacci folks,) or it’s a proven standard.” All of those are appeal to authority fallacies. For instance....
How does a compass work? Are the answers “well everybody else uses compasses” or “compasses are a proven standard” WHY a compass works? If you don’t know how a compass works and you’re lost, you aren’t going to know what variables will stop the compass from working. You might be in the Southern Hemisphere, that’d lead you in the exact opposite direction, but you wouldn’t know it because you DON’T KNOW WHY it works. Then die of starvation shortly after because you didn’t understand a tool paramount to your survival and couldn’t find your way back to civilization. If you’re lost in the ocean of institutional investors, AT LEAST understand why your tools work.
For instance, why does divergence work? You probably know that divergence represents a reversal.
Divergence doesn’t form because of “price” or “its losing momentum,” divergence forms because an oscillator defines a data set that expands and contracts based on the activity in the period lookback you define for it. When you have an expanding data set, it requires increasingly drastic moves to register the same “extreme” values. If you have a tight data set and you have a huge outlier, the data set widens to compensate with every candle close. So now that you have a wider data set, an equal move would register as a less extreme event as defined by the oscillator. That’s why divergence forms/works.
Seriously, it’s worth learning these things. Unless you can explain why something works like I just did with divergence you shouldn’t EVER use it in your arsenal. Then if you do take the time to learn the “why,” you’ll start realizing that a lot of the commonly accepted tools are fundamentally broken. For instance, with your new understanding of divergence, think about overbought or oversold signals. Why would a new outlier of a data set imply a return to the center of the data set if the data set is in an active state of expansion, CAUSED by the outlier?
Now if you’re relying on an appeal to authority fallacy for understanding, could it be that the authority that presented the information doesn’t have your best interest at heart? Breakout patterns for example. If you have a bull flag, and you’re betting on bullish trend continuation, I’ll take a wild guess about where you put your stop loss. Oh, below the bull flag? Large players know this and will scoop up your stops before pushing price up. How often have you said, “wow, I was right but I stopped out just before trend continuation!” The “golden standard” of technical analysis is only so to make the masses of retail traders a predictable herd of cattle.
Also, stay away from entirely subjective strategies that will always appear correct in hindsight. Oh, how many times have you redrawn that Elliot wave extension to match what happened instead of what you predicted? Don’t you dare bring up the Fibonacci to justify your subjective drawings either. Fibonacci doesn’t work because “it’s natures law” or the “golden rule,” it just happens to be very similar to the first standard deviation of any price move. So why are you using a static reading to predict a dynamic value that changes with every candle close?
For TA that actually works (if you use it correctly,) I can recommend ichimoku, though only on macro timeframes and requires a lot of reading to use properly.
Mark Whistler’s books on volatility are my biggest recommendation to learn. Any strategy using WAVE PM and 3D WAVE PM are ideal, treating price strictly as reactionary, multiperiod probability distributions gives an excellent “why” in the chaos of the markets. The compression and expansion cycles can be defined to the exact period on any timeframe with the right readings. I created a write up a while back going in depth on my findings on probability distributions here. https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/ah5bxo/lets_talk_about_the_basics_of_advanced_volatility/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app
I also created a google doc over the years and filled it with a few resources I’ve used to learn, I can hand it out if you dm me.
Finally, don’t forget to do your FA. Macro level economic indications are incredibly important for defining the long term alignment of expectations. However never trade the news, this is an important distinction. Don’t bet that the US dollar will go down because Trump made a stupid tweet, please. What you SHOULD do is measure the strength of the move and the EXPANSION caused by the FA and identify where the compression begins afterwards. For every period of expansion, there is a predictable compressionary range that follows that is equal to the expansion. For every action there’s an equal and opposite reaction. Instead of betting on the news, bet on the reaction after the news has cooled off.
That’s all that immediately comes to mind. Feel free to ask any questions.
submitted by FallacyDog to Forex [link] [comments]

Crypto exchange trade. Remember psychology!

https://medium.com/@sergiygolubyev/crypto-exchange-trade-remember-psychology-6d4433569d9d
Crypto Exchange is a high-tech platform in which all trade transactions are conducted using modern software created based on the latest IT solutions. The emergence of new types of currencies, in particular cryptocurrencies, gives a chance for the rapid development of the world economy as a whole. In turn, structural changes in the international economic system gave impetus to the emergence and development of new types of exchange technologies. Thus, crypto exchanges appeared which allowed its participants anywhere in the world to buy, sell and exchange one cryptocurrency for others, or for fiat of other countries. Each crypto exchange tries to offer customers convenient ways to convert financial instruments, and provides the ability to conduct transactions on its own terms. The high rates of development and distribution of cryptocurrencies, which are based on Blockchain, as well as the gradual wide recognition by the world community and leading economists, ensure the further improvement of exchange technologies. This means that in an effort to provide the most comfortable conditions for its customers, each crypto exchange will take them to an ever-higher quality level of service with innovative nuances. But at the same time, within the framework of the technological process of stock trading, which is available to users (from professional traders to amateurs), the question of psychology and its role in the decision making has not been canceled. Successful trading depends on 70% primarily on the psychology of a trader and only 30% on the trading scheme/strategy.
Trading on the exchange, it is necessary to develop discipline, self-control and be able to respond quickly to changing stock charts. All this will allow you to earn and minimize your losses more effectively. Everyone should remember, from the amateur to the professional, that in the financial markets you can not only earn money, but also lose money. Cryptocurrency rates are still subject to political and regulatory influences; their value is influenced by the reputation of the company's founders, informational insertions about blockchain projects and plans for their further development, scandals and disclosures. Nevertheless, there are simple rules for successful trading from the field of psychology, which will reduce the risks when trying to make money on cryptocurrency and not only. There are a number of problems that always hinder every beginner - amateur:
· Excitement
· Fear
· Greed
· Unwillingness to learn new things
· Imaginary visualization of results
All these problems have psychological aspects. Emotions, feelings and desires significantly influence the trading decisions made by the trader. This happens all the time, not only on traditional exchanges, but also in the cryptocurrency sphere as well. Excitement is an emotional state when it seems to a person that he is lucky, and as the series of successful transactions continues, he performs larger by volume financial transactions. Often, the excitement motivates to turn away from long-term transactions and trends, and look towards short-term operations. After all, it seems that the more often you successfully complete operations, the more capital you earn. Not at all! The more often you make mistakes, leading to a default on your account. Money only is earned on long-term trends and operations. Traders are often worried, fearing an unsuccessful deal closing.
Of course, a loss is bad, but sometimes it is better to close a position in minus than to lose a large amount only because of the hope of a quick price reversal. Therefore, fear often pushes for the wrong strategic decisions. Fear of loss as a result becomes a sentence for your positioning in profit. On the same face with fear, if not strange, is the factor of greed. Having essentially a different source of inspiration, greed, like fear, leads to a generally pitiable result — to the default of your trading account. The reluctance to learn new strategies, technologies, and denial of forecasting also leads to failure. Successful is who always strives to learn new things, and perceives the fact and necessity of continuous learning. Since learning is a process of striving for the progress of its results and professional qualities. Another scourge - Wish list or visualization. Everyone wants to see the price move in the right direction. This is pretty dangerous. By visualizing the price jump in the right direction, you can dream and invest too much in cryptocurrency. This will lead to losses. Here you should always remember to diversify your investments. Remember your psychological portrait even when you program your trading strategies, algorithms and bots. After all, your algorithm is essentially your psychological portrait. Finally, the above-mentioned flaws, especially in the strategy can dominate and damage your deposit and reputation. The main signs of competent crypto-trade are the same as on other exchanges (such as FOREX). This is a kind of algorithm for a sustainable profit strategy:
· Risk no more than 10% of the deposit
· Use risk per trade of 5% or less
· Do not close profitable deals too early
· Do not accumulate losing trades
· Fix quick speculative profit
· Respect the trend
· Pay more attention to liquid assets (cryptocurrency)
· Set your personal entry and exit rules for trades and stick to them
· Long-term trading strategy gives you maximum steady profits
· Do not use the principles of Martingale tactics if there is no experience. You cannot double the volume of the transaction, if it closed in the red zone. If a loss was incurred, then the cryptocurrency market situation was predicted incorrectly and it was necessary to work on improving the analytical skills, and not to conclude a larger deal, which probably also closes in the negative
It is obvious that the psychology of trading significantly affects the performance of stock speculation both in the traditional market and in the field of cryptocurrency. It is important to remember that the success of a person in any field of activity depends on the emotional component, namely the internal balance. Exchange trading is a nervous activity, and if you do not learn to take emotions under control, the results can be disastrous. The basis for achieving success in stock trading, in my opinion, are two fundamental factors. The first factor relates to the field of formulation of the trading idea, and the second - to the area of ​​its implementation.
To formulate a trading idea, on the one hand, methods of technical and fundamental analysis are used to select an exchange instrument and determine the moment of opening and closing a position on it. On the other hand, capital management methods are used to determine the optimal size of the position being opened. As you know, without these two crucial moments it is impossible to achieve stable success in stock trading. As experience shows, for the most part, people have enough intelligence to master all the necessary theoretical knowledge of technical and fundamental analysis in a few months of intensive training. There are no special intellectual difficulties. But, as the same experience shows, this is clearly not enough for successful exchange trading, since all knowledge may turn out to be a useless load if the second success factor is not sufficiently present - the practical implementation of trading ideas, which is no longer based on the intellectual sphere, and psycho-emotional. It is within this area that the main problem arises for many traders, which prevents the receipt of stable profits. As a rule, this is due to the psycho-emotional profile of a person. It depends on how the trader will behave in the psychologically stressful situations that the exchange trading is full of. Inherent in all human emotions and feelings - fear, greed, excitement, envy, hope, etc. very often have a decisive influence on the behavior of traders, not allowing them to follow strictly the trading strategy and plan, even if they have one. From a psychological point of view, the process of stock exchange activity can be divided into stages, after which the trader can return to the starting point. The above scenarios and risk factors are one of the options for the behavior of an exchange speculator; however, it often happens exactly the opposite. Having suffered losses from his first transactions in the market, the trader loses interest in exchange trading, he gives up and he falls into despair. In this case, the first step to victory is the admission of defeat. It would seem silly and ridiculous, but it works. After that, there are two options: either the trader leaves the exchange forever, or returns to the battlefield. Such “returns” may occur more than once. In addition, at some other time, after repeated analysis of his actions, mistakes made and their consequences, a person from a beginner begins to turn into an experienced trader, which is marked by the stability of his activity and, perhaps, by slow, but surely growth of his deposit and profit. The psychological basis for success in trading, which leads to victory and the absence of which is equivalent to defeat, are as follows:
· It is not only the lack of self-control, discipline and focus on the process that causes the defeat
· Self-control, discipline and ability to concentrate is not enough to achieve success
· To achieve success, it is equally important to be able to adapt to changes
In principle, one can consider the idea that traditional approaches to the psychology of trading are limited. In the majority of benefits for traders, the key qualities necessary for successful exchange trading are only self-control and discipline. Of course, these qualities are necessary in any field of business activities. Trading is not an exception, especially considering that it is in the risk zone. But self-control and discipline are not enough to achieve success. Trading is a business. Moreover, any business does not stand still. You cannot find a formula for success and use it forever. You will need to monitor trends and constantly look for new successful solutions.
The main feature of a successful trader is adaptability to changes. The lack of development leads to defeat, large monetary losses. Many technology companies continued to produce stationary computers when laptops became popular. The same companies continued to produce laptops when tablets appeared and became popular. The products of these companies were of high quality, and their employees organized pre-set tasks in an organized manner. But they lost large sums due to the fact that they could not adapt to changes in demand. If we draw a parallel with the sphere of investment, the similarities will become noticeable. The stock market, like any other subject to change. One period is replaced by another. Those methods that allowed achieving success in the previous period can lead to failure in the current. The key concept in stock trading is volatility. The change in this indicates the onset of a new period. When volatility increases, trade becomes more risky. Accordingly, with a decrease in this indicator, the degree of risk during trading operations decreases. With a high level of volatility, trends most often unfold. Strong and weak positions can be swapped out. With a high level of volatility, trends continue for some time. From the foregoing, it should be concluded that market processes and methods during periods of high and low volatility differ strongly. You cannot use the same methods during changing market trends. Often it is the adherence to the previous methods, excessive discipline leads to collapse as well. The fact that the investor was defeated does not mean that he suddenly became morally unstable, unorganized. Trading is trading.
Therefore, we have every right to assert that under the psychology of trade in the markets is meant human preparedness for the risks that inevitably accompany any activity. Trading on the stock exchange is based on the interaction of the three most important components: capital management, analysis, and the psychology of trading (which cannot be considered in conjunction with the other aspects of trading). The psychology of human behavior is a source for understanding what is happening in financial markets. The source for understanding the events occurring in the financial markets and the behavior of traders during exchange trading is the psychology of the human person. Emotions — greed, fear, doubt, hope, a sense of self-preservation — are peculiar to any person in life — are clearly manifested in the hard rhythm of decision-making during the dynamic course of exchange trading (which was partially considered above). Knowledge of the human psychology and their behavioral characteristics must be used to achieve success. The psychology of a trader is formed from a multitude of grains - it is a belief in what one does in the stock market, in one’s actions, in own system of one’s decisions, in trading method. In addition, the psychology of a trader is that one can unload oneself emotionally, one does not accept the intellectual challenge that the stock market carries. On the contrary, becomes restrained, calm when making decisions on operations in the stock market. There are many situations where a trader expresses his attention and focus; he does not disperse it on the tracking of news factors or on the receipt of stimuli from the news agencies. Consequently, the crowd psychology is the factor that makes prices move, therefore, in addition to assessing one's own psychological state, one must be sensitive to changes in the mood of other market participants, move in the flow, not against it, and then success will not take long.
Of course, you can argue that why do I need this psychology? After all, besides creating your own strategies and individual work, some exchanges (including crypto exchanges) allow minimizing risks by following the strategies of experienced traders; this service is called a PAMM account. PAMM provides an opportunity for clients (Subscribers) to follow the trading strategy of experienced and professional traders (Providers). Provider's trading results are publicly available. With the help of the rating of accounts, graphs of profitability and reviews of other traders, you can choose the most suitable Provider and begin to follow his strategy. Again, in this case, the provider is a human with all the ensuing consequences. And psychological aspects are not foreign to professionals as well, including victories and mistakes. The financial market attracts people the possibility of obtaining independence, including financial. A successful trader can live and work in any country in the world without having either a boss or subordinates. The motivation of people on the exchanges can be different: from getting a higher percentage than from a bank to making several thousand dollars a day. At the same time, there are two main categories of people in the financial market (including cryptocurrencies): investors who acquire assets or currency for a relatively long period, and speculators who profit from changes in the prices of certain assets for short periods. Many believe, an easy way to make money is not for everybody. First, the skillful use and manipulation of the psychological aspects of a human make it possible to become a speculator. And this, of course, in addition to knowledge and analytical skills. Experience shows that successful speculation is the right state of mind. It would seem that this is the simplest thing that can be acquired by human. But in fact, this self-tuning is available to very few. It is also necessary to distinguish the psychology of the market and the personal psychology of the trader. The behavior of the market as a whole depends on people, since it is the stock market crowd that determines its direction. However, quite often traders lose sight of the most important component of victory - managing their personal emotions, that is, their psychology. Without control over oneself, there can be no control over one’s trading capital. If a trader is not tuned to the trend range of the stock crowd, if he does not pay attention to changes in her psychology, then he will also not achieve significant success in trading. To succeed on the exchange, one needs to take a sober look at exchange trading, recognize its trends and their changes, and not waste time on dreams or lamenting about failures.
Any price of a financial instrument is a momentary agreement on its value, reached by a market crowd and expressed in the fact of a transaction, i.e. it is the equilibrium point between the players for a rise and a fall, or the "equilibrium" price. Crowds of traders create asset prices: buyers, sellers and fluctuating market watchers. Charts of prices and trading volumes reflect the psychology of the exchange. In addition, this is always worth remembering! After all, the main purpose of the presence of the analysis of psychology in stock trading is not the quantity, but the quality of transactions. A person striving to become a good trader needs to remember the words of DiNapoli, a well-known stock exchange trader: “The most important trading tool is not a computer, not a service for supplying information, or even methods developed by a trader. It is he himself! If a trader is not suitable for this - he should not trade at all”! Therefore, before pushing orders on the trading platform, think about whether you are suitable for this role.
Join chat — https://t.me/joinchat/AAAAAE84vCXg5PK-VpHADg
Sergiy Golubyev (Сергей Голубев)
EU structural funds, ICO projects, NGO & investment projects, project management, comprehensive support of business
submitted by Golubyev_Sergiy to u/Golubyev_Sergiy [link] [comments]

10 Blockchain Companies To Watch In Asia

10 Blockchain Companies To Watch In Asia

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Article by Forbes: Joresa Blount
In 2018, Asia was one of the leading regions in terms of growth of blockchain jobs, cryptocurrency usage, innovation, and general openness. Despite some early woes with China banning ICOs, China still produces nearly 70% of crypto mining activity.
For users and entrepreneurs, the Asian ecosystem is in general a friendly one. For example, in Singapore Bitcoin is taxed as a good rather than a currency, setting a 7% flat tax for trades or purchases using Bitcoin. In Japan, messenger giant, LINE, was just granted a crypto exchange license from the Japanese financial regulator. In Korea, news just broke that the country’s largest entertainment company would be launching its own token.
Besides the name brand companies that are exploring crypto solutions, there are hundreds of innovative startups and founders looking to radically disrupt their respective industries with blockchain technology. This list contains ten innovative blockchain startups based in Asia worth watching, including exchanges, fintech startups, and more.
Today In: Innovation
1. Level01
Level01 is the world’s first broker less derivatives exchange in collaboration with Thomson Reuters. Through using blockchain technology, the platform eliminates middlemen while providing a decentralized trading experience. Users can trade derivatives and options in forex, cryptocurrencies, commodities, stocks and indices, all from the Level01 platform and app.
Level01 does this by using Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) for transparent and automated trade settlement on the blockchain, with their unique Artificial Intelligence (AI) analytics called Fairsense that provides fair value pricing dynamically to counterparties in a trade, based on current and retrospective market data from Thomson Reuters. The platform and app are currently undergoing stringent beta testing by 50 experienced traders.
2. Galaxy Pool
Galaxy Pool, also known as GPO, is a brand-new asset issuance style on blockchain that utilizes intelligent contracts for initial digital asset issuance. In general, GPO assets can be best described as mining machines used to explore various kinds of digital assets that can obtain value-added benefits of GPO through the repurchase and destruction of pond profits.
With this brand-new asset issuance style on blockchain, more humanistic investment opportunities with free withdrawal rights can be provided to investors.
3. Biki
Headquartered in Singapore, BiKi.com is a global cryptocurrency exchange ranked Top 20 on CoinMarketCap. BiKi.com provides a digital assets platform for trading more than 150 cryptocurrencies and 220 trading pairs. Since its official opening in August 2018, BiKi.com is considered one of the fastest-growing cryptocurrency exchanges in the world with an accumulated 1.5 million registered users, 130,000 daily active users, over 2000 community partners and 200,000 community members in under a year.
BiKi’s competitive advantages include helping projects with marketing, influencers, brand awareness, and community growth in the Chinese markets and abroad. With a global approach, BiKi also helps Chinese companies go global and international companies penetrate Chinese markets.
4. Whitebit
With a global team of over 100 people, Whitebit is a professional digital asset trading platform that services most major Asian markets via a European license. The exchange holds 95% of user funds in cold wallets and offers users an intuitive user interface with real-time orderbooks, charting and technical analysis tools, and automation features. Whitebit’s major competitive advantage is processing speeds of up to 10,000 trades every second and 1,000,000 TCP connections.
Whitebit has also announced the release of S.M.A.R.T. Box, a program that allows users to budget and allocate funds based on unique plans with varying durations and interest rates. Next is the launch of margin trading in Q4 2020, as well as mobile iOS and Android apps and an eventual US license.
5. Opu Labs
Opu Labs is creating the self-care business model of the future starting with the skincare space. There are over 1.2 billion online skincare consumers with a $3 billion digital services business. Opu Labs helps make the decision-making process easier by offering free advice powered by AI, rewarding users for their purchase data using blockchain technology, and using robust technologies to connect brands and consumers.
Under the leadership of CEO Marc Bookman, Opu Labs was named in the top 25 healthcare solutions by CIO Applications and won the start-up GrandSlam in Singapore. To date, $2m in rewards have been earned on the platform and the company will be releasing their long-awaited apps soon.
6. Coinsbit.io
Thanks to his vast expertise, experience, and sense of the market, Nikolay Udianskyi created a high-quality crypto exchange called Coinsbit.io. Now leading the Asian crypto market, Coinsbit was named the best 2018 crypto exchange at Asian Blockchain Life 2019.
Coinsbit is planning to further distinguish itself from the competition through a series of novel functions. Among its plans is a P2P microfinancing lending service that will enable users to borrow and lend money on the platform. Coinsbit will ensure privacy for all users and will not require borrowers to show their credit history. An additional planned feature is an invest box service, which will reward users who deposit cryptocurrency by paying them interest on various coins.
7. GST Coin
GST is a comprehensive digital application platform which integrates encrypted payment currency, blockchain and artificial intelligence technology. It is dedicated to providing the most valuable intelligent digital asset service for every user and creating a new GST digital public chain in a diversified market structure. GST project is committed to using the most advanced technology to create the most perfect user experience, and it has always been in the forefront of the market in the decentralized security sharing architecture.
GST was born out of MHC Asset Management Corporation, a high-tech enterprise engaged in R&D and innovation of blockchain technology. Their executive team includes CEO Ms. Zhang Qun and other leading technologists and entrepreneurs in China.
8. Columbu
Columbu (CAT) is a global community-based open-source blockchain project that has been active since 2017. Under CTO David Su, CAT’s main focus is building a high-performance DAPP development platform and community encouraging and autonomous system based on software and hardware combined GCloud Everest computing platform. This is the world’s first public blockchain (distributed cloud) using CUDA and blockchain technology.
The project will allow for a worldwide distributed and free economic collaborative network of intelligent economies. This will happen through a community incentive mechanism and autonomous system to build in real-time. The project has an ambitious roadmap that will include growing its global developer community and other projects within their ecosystem.
9. KBC
Registered in Singapore, KBC is the powering token of a global financial infrastructure and range of products focused around gold. These products include an innovative Voice-over-Blockchain smartphone called IMpulse K1, a crypto payment merchant processor called K-Merchant, and a cryptocurrency exchange and trading platform. Together these products and entities combine to form the Gold Imperium, the company’s financial ecosystem.
The company has attracted heavy interest from users who have seen the benefits of having both gold and cryptocurrency exposure, as well as the ease of use of being able to use each day to day through tokens such as KBC. As both markets expand, keep an eye on KBC.
10. TEXCENT
TEXCENT is a Singaporean blockchain and fintech startup focused on fully-integrated solutions for remittance, payments, and microfinancing. Using blockchain technology, the company wants to provide seamless and convenient digital financial services solutions to Asia and the world. TEXCENT is currently focusing on the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand as these markets will grow exponentially in the next 5 years.
Their current products include PAYCENT, an app and hybrid wallet, as well as TEXCENT, a remittance solution with zero fees. TEXCENT has already acquired a remittance license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and is in the process of getting similar licenses for UK, Malaysia and Hong Kong in the coming months. The company is also a member of the Singapore Fintech Association.
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Introducing ΔMP & Σ(ΔMP) Trading Indicators to the Web

Introducing ΔMP & Σ(ΔMP) Trading Indicators to the Web
In my latest eBook, I introduced ΔMP, a technical analysis tool that can be used in any financial asset class and in any timeframe. The mission of ΔMP is to measure and illustrate the historical momentum of any Forex pair, or any other financial-traded asset.
Forming ΔMP: ΔMP is formed by summarizing the historical divergence between closing rates and intraday ranges.

-ΔMP Calculation
This is how ΔMP works:
ΔMP reflects the daily difference between the Closing Price and the Mean Price
□ Where:
Mean Price = (Daily High + Daily Low) / 2
ΔMP = {(Closing Price – Mean Price) / Mean Price} %

-The Importance of ΔMP
ΔMP expresses the divergence between the closing price and the mean price. Positive ΔMP values in a row indicate that the price of an asset continuously closes near the highest intraday price. That is a sign of a positive momentum regarding the dynamics of intraday demand/supply. In general, when ΔMP shows highly positive values for a certain period, the odds of winning for that period are better.

-Σ(ΔMP) Calculation
ΔMP is also used for drawing momentum charts, by summarizing historical ΔMP values and forming Σ(ΔMP) as follows:
□ Σ(ΔMP) for N Periods
ΔMP(N) = {(Closing-1 Mean-1)/Mean-1)%} + {(Closing-2 Mean-2)/Mean-2)%}… + {(Closing-N Mean-N)/Mean-N)%}

-Σ(ΔMP) Example on USDJPY
The following chart area incorporates a USDJPY weekly chart for the period 1996 to 2018 and a Σ(ΔMP) chart for a shorter period (2000 to 2018).
Chart-Area: Upper USDJPY Weekly (W1) chart and Lower Σ(ΔMP) chart
Σ(ΔMP) on USD/JPY
Observations regarding Σ(ΔMP):
(1) The above Σ(ΔMP) chart includes a Linear Trendline (R²=0.8893), the higher the R-squared, the better the model fits the data
(2) The linear trendline seems to work as a support/resistance trendline, which is definitely out of the ordinary
(3) After 2004, the Σ(ΔMP) chart shows a strong bullish formation for USDJPY, and maybe that can be contributed to the differential of growth rates between US and Japan, but also to the differential of interest rates between the two economies

Here is the full article: https://tradingcenter.org/index.php/train/mp

■ ΔMP & Σ(ΔMP) -Τhe Latest Technical Indicator by TradingCenter
Giorgos Protonotarios, Financial Analyst,
Qexpert & TradingCenter.org
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Buy LVX Token Before Its Too Late!

Buy LVX Token Before Its Too Late!
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Last chance to buy our LVX token before we list
Level01 is a peer to peer (P2P) derivatives exchange that allows investors to trade options contracts directly with one another, without any broker or middleman.
The Level01 App enables investors to trade derivatives freely and easily from a multitude of assets, ranging from Forex, Cryptocurrencies, Commodities, Stocks and Indices. We will open the $1.2 quadrillion derivatives market to the general public.
Level01 combines Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) for transparent and automated trade settlement on the blockchain, with Artificial Intelligence (AI) analytics that provides fair value pricing dynamically to counterparties in a trade, based on current & retrospective market data from Thomson Reuters.
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The Bloomberg Finance Lab

The Bloomberg Terminal (aka Bloomberg Professional Services) connects finance professionals to a dynamic network of information, people, and ideas. At the core of this network is the ability to deliver real-time data to finance professionals around the world.
The main value added services provided by Bloomberg Terminal are:
  1. Data
  2. News
  3. Analytics
These services are provided through innovative, proprietary technology, that quickly and accurately provides financial information to individuals and across enterprises around the world.
A world leader in providing market data information across the globe through its websites, apps and dedicated feeds and software products, Bloomberg offers a variety of tools available on free and paid basis, allowing finance professionals to use them in their research, analysis and related trading activities. Bloomberg’s coverage includes all possible financial securities ranging from equities, fixed income, derivatives, commodities, forex and OTC products, across the globe.

Bloomberg website:

The official Bloomberg website offers a wealth of free and subscription based tools and utilities, most offering customized views as per regions/markets.

Symbol Lookup Service:

Introduced couple of years back, Bloomberg Open Symbology tool offers Symbol lookup service and mapping of different symbols (SEDOL, CUSIP, ISIN, Stock exchange ticker, etc.) at global level. Individual traders as well as large investment firms having a need to consolidate data sourced from multiple sources with different symbols use this service. For e.g. a mutual fund company may take 2 different data feeds – one from Bloomberg containing Bloomberg symbol and other from Stock exchange containing local ticker. Symbology service enables cross referencing to validate data across two sources with different tickers.
Apart from the generic Open Symbology service, the widely followed Bloomberg symbols can be accessed through its dedicated symbol search tool.

Bloomberg Professional Products & Services:

The paid professional products and tools available from Bloomberg offer coverage across 360+ exchanges, 24000+ companies, global currency markets, and includes recently launched bitcoin coverage. These products and tools today are used by more than 315,000 subscribers across 175 countries, demonstrating the depth and variety of offerings from Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Market data terminal remains the most saleable product for both individual and enterprise use. A good 2 pager Getting Started Guide is available for introduction to financial analysis tools available within the Bloomberg Terminal. Apart from usual charts, graphs, technical indicators and market data coverage, one of the key selling points of Bloomberg Terminals is its instant messaging feature which enables easy communication across individuals, dedicated workgroups and even Bloomberg representatives for assistance.
Bloomberg Briefs: A dedicated service in the form of digital newsletters for the global financial markets, Bloomberg Brief offers insights into sector or region specific areas in PDF format.
Briefs for following categories are published daily – Bankruptcy & Restructuring, Economics, Economics Asia, Economics Europe, London, Municipal Market and Oil. Publication for other categories is weekly – China, Clean Energy & Carbon, Financial Regulation, Hedge Funds Europe, Hedge Funds, Leveraged Finance, Mergers, Private Equity, Structured Notes and Technical Strategies.
Such wide varieties of tools offered by Bloomberg come with lots of portability. All website based functionality can be accessed through standard browsers on mobiles and tablets, and even professional products offer portability for mobile and remote access through desktops, laptops, tablets and smartphones.

Bloomberg Enterprise Solutions

At the enterprise level, Bloomberg offers dedicated data feeds, pricing, reference and market data, news and information services to meet the needs of large financial enterprises employing financial analysts, traders and researchers. The Bloomberg trading solutions, offer connectivity and integration for buy side and sell side institutional clients. These find usage in complementing the OMS (Order management system), and recent EMS (Execution management system), for trade execution.
N L Dalmia has set up Mumbai’s first Bloomberg Finance Lab with 12 Bloomberg terminals, offering students extremely focused and high end knowledge programs with a high degree of practical learning and on-the-job applicability. Learning mba in mumbai from N L Dalmia is a step towards boosting one's career.
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The Bloomberg Finance Lab Launched at N L Dalmia Campus Mumbai

The Bloomberg Terminal (aka Bloomberg Professional Services) connects finance professionals to a dynamic network of information, people, and ideas. At the core of this network is the ability to deliver real-time data to finance professionals around the world.
The main value added services provided by Bloomberg Terminal are:
  1. Data
  2. News
  3. Analytics
These services are provided through innovative, proprietary technology, that quickly and accurately provides financial information to individuals and across enterprises around the world.
A world leader in providing market data information across the globe through its websites, apps and dedicated feeds and software products, Bloomberg offers a variety of tools available on free and paid basis, allowing finance professionals to use them in their research, analysis and related trading activities. Bloomberg’s coverage includes all possible financial securities ranging from equities, fixed income, derivatives, commodities, forex and OTC products, across the globe.

Bloomberg website:

The official Bloomberg website offers a wealth of free and subscription based tools and utilities, most offering customized views as per regions/markets.

Symbol Lookup Service:

Introduced couple of years back, Bloomberg Open Symbology tool offers Symbol lookup service and mapping of different symbols (SEDOL, CUSIP, ISIN, Stock exchange ticker, etc.) at global level. Individual traders as well as large investment firms having a need to consolidate data sourced from multiple sources with different symbols use this service. For e.g. a mutual fund company may take 2 different data feeds – one from Bloomberg containing Bloomberg symbol and other from Stock exchange containing local ticker. Symbology service enables cross referencing to validate data across two sources with different tickers.
Apart from the generic Open Symbology service, the widely followed Bloomberg symbols can be accessed through its dedicated symbol search tool.

Bloomberg Professional Products & Services:

The paid professional products and tools available from Bloomberg offer coverage across 360+ exchanges, 24000+ companies, global currency markets, and includes recently launched bitcoin coverage. These products and tools today are used by more than 315,000 subscribers across 175 countries, demonstrating the depth and variety of offerings from Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Market data terminal remains the most saleable product for both individual and enterprise use. A good 2 pager Getting Started Guide is available for introduction to financial analysis tools available within the Bloomberg Terminal. Apart from usual charts, graphs, technical indicators and market data coverage, one of the key selling points of Bloomberg Terminals is its instant messaging feature which enables easy communication across individuals, dedicated workgroups and even Bloomberg representatives for assistance.
Bloomberg Briefs: A dedicated service in the form of digital newsletters for the global financial markets, Bloomberg Brief offers insights into sector or region specific areas in PDF format.
Briefs for following categories are published daily – Bankruptcy & Restructuring, Economics, Economics Asia, Economics Europe, London, Municipal Market and Oil. Publication for other categories is weekly – China, Clean Energy & Carbon, Financial Regulation, Hedge Funds Europe, Hedge Funds, Leveraged Finance, Mergers, Private Equity, Structured Notes and Technical Strategies.
Such wide varieties of tools offered by Bloomberg come with lots of portability. All website based functionality can be accessed through standard browsers on mobiles and tablets, and even professional products offer portability for mobile and remote access through desktops, laptops, tablets and smartphones.

Bloomberg Enterprise Solutions

At the enterprise level, Bloomberg offers dedicated data feeds, pricing, reference and market data, news and information services to meet the needs of large financial enterprises employing financial analysts, traders and researchers. The Bloomberg trading solutions, offer connectivity and integration for buy side and sell side institutional clients. These find usage in complementing the OMS (Order management system), and recent EMS (Execution management system), for trade execution.
NLDIMSR has set up Mumbai’s first Bloomberg Finance Lab with 12 Bloomberg terminals, offering students extremely focused and high end knowledge programs with a high degree of practical learning and on-the-job applicability.
submitted by dipika20 to MBAIndia [link] [comments]

The intelligent investors guide to cryptocurrency: Part 3b - Pricing and liquidity

*Introductions: I'm joskye. A cryptocurrency investor and SDC holder. *
...
Hi again. This is the third part in our ongoing series on how to trade better and determine intelligent investments in cryptocurrency for the future.
Part 3b continues where I left off with a discussion about price metrics specifically, what determines the price and the importance of liquidity:
...
The day traders:
As I mentioned in my previous article, as of writing almost every cryptocurrency is determined purely by speculative value.
Thus the absolute price of a given cryptocurrency is determined solely by the day traders and specifically the last price it was agreed that currency would be sold at with confirmation of that price by a buyer who bought it.
People say lots of things determine the price; marketcap, liquidity, value proposition, revenues generated by the coin, the number of said coin in circulation but ultimately it comes down to the number of buyers and number of sellers competing for that coin.
Perhaps the other thing is the size of said market relative to the money held by the players in it.
For instance in cryptocurrency Bitcoin is still the biggest player in the game. It carries a per unit price of $900 per coin. There are currently 16,090,137 (16 million) coins in circulation giving it a total marketcap value of [$900 x 16090137 =] $14481123300 or 14.48 billion USD.
Shadowcash looks even more meagre compared to the total cryptocurrency marketcap with only 0.048% of the total cryptocurrency sphere.
To any Shadowcash holders despairing at this point, relax. There are over 707 cryptocurrencies trading as of writing and SDC holds the 27th ranking in terms of market cap. In such a competitive field, filled with scams that's pretty good. Moreso when you consider that SDC is a legitimate technology and is currently probably very undervalued.
...
Lets look at the rich list for bitcoin:
Why did I just talk about this?
In cryptocurrency I see this happening on the markets all the time. Indeed market manipulation effects every single cryptocurrency eventually.
...
Market manipulation!
Large holders of valuable, high marketcap coins will often make multiple small volume purchases of less valuable, low marketcap coins. Often this will follow announcements regarding developments in that low marketcap coin.
Low volume buying in a market with low daily trading volume can gradually drive up the price attracting an influx of buyers into that coin; often they will make larger volume purchases of it which helps drive up the price much further. This will trigger a further chain of buyers experiencing FOMO (fear of missing out, detailed in Part 2) who will drive up the price even further. The price will pump. Often will smaller cap cryptocurrencies this may result in a sudden 20, 40, 60 or even +100% increase in value often over a very short time space (1-2 days, 1-2 weeks maximum).
The only way to discern if the sudden rise in coin value is due to pre-rigged market manipulation is to look at:
You are looking for organic, gradual growth based on a solid value proposition. Sudden large spikes in value should make you pause and wonder if it's worth waiting for a gradual correction (organic drop) in price before entering your buy order.
Do not fall for a pump and dump. Stick to the lessons covered in previous parts of this guide (especially part 3a and 2) and you will be much less likely to lose money in the long run trading and investing in cryptocurrencies.
...
The pattern of change on daily trading volume, the order book and liquidity:
Lets look at SDC and Bitcoin again. This time we are going to compare the daily trading volume (last 24 hours) in USD.
I'd just like to use this opportunity to point out and reinforce the idea that day traders not holders dictate the daily price of an asset. I'd also like to point out daily global trading volume on Forex is $4800 billion which makes Bitcoin a very small fish in the broader arena of global finance and trade i.e. Bitcoin is still very vulnerable to all the price manipulation tactics and liquidity issues I am going to be describing in this article by bigger players with richer pockets.
The daily trading volume also gives you an idea of how much fiat currency you can invest into a given cryptocurrency before you suddenly shift the price.
A sudden rise in coin price heavily out of proportion to the rise in daily trading volume should be the first sign to alert you to a pump & dump scam.
Daily trading volume should show a steady increase over time with sustained buy support at new price levels; this is a good marker of organic, sustainable growth.
...
For more detail you can now look at the depth chart:
The depth chart is very useful to know how much fiat currency is required to cause the spot price of a given cryptocurrency to rise or fall by a given amount.
NB the price of most cryptocurrencies is expressed in Bitcoin because it has the largest market cap and daily trading volume of all cryptocurrencies by a very large margin and because with a few exceptions (Ethereum, Monero) most cryptocurrencies do not have routes to directly purchase via fiat currency without first purchasing Bitcoin.
Liquidity is super important. People often complain about a market lacking liquidity but that is often because they are trading in fiat volumes which far exceed the daily trading fiat volumes of the cryptocurrency they are referring to. If you are investing or trading in a cryptocurrency, always factor in the your personal liquidity and need for liquidity relative to that of the cryptocurrency you are investing in. In other words don't expect to make a profit next day selling 'cryptocurrency x' if the size your single buy order composes >90% of the buy orders on the market for 'cryptocurrency x' that day (indeed in such a scenario be very prepared to sell at a loss next day if you absolutely have to)!
There are certain patterns on a depth chart that make me believe a significant, sustained price rise is imminent: One example occurs when there is a very large volume of buy orders (>25% of total buy volume within 5% of current price) very close to the current (spot) price, and a very large number of sell orders close to but significantly above the spot price (approx 25% total sell volume within 10% of current price) and especially if the total buy order volume is a significantly higher percentage than it has previously been. This simply indicates high demand at current price which may soon outstrip supply. Again I stress that these patterns can be manipulated easily by wealthy traders.
...
The order book is another way of looking at the depth chart and allows you to see the specific transactions occurring that compose daily trading volume by the second!
I find it useful because it allows me to identify:
...
The price charts:
Discussions about price charts could be endless. I'm not going to go into too much detail, mostly because I'm an investor who believes the value proposition, good consistent development, decent marketing and communications will ultimately trump spot prices and adverse (or positive) short term price trends in the future.
...
The news cycle:
...
Other interesting points: The 'coin x' scenario and the ridiculousness of marketcap:
'Coin X' is an imaginary hypothetical coin. There are only 10 in circulation. It has no value proposition beyond it's speculative value i.e. it will never generate a revenue independent of it's speculative value.
I'd like to point out the similarities between ZCash and 'coin x' (especially during it's launch).
...
Lessons:
...
Finally why am I writing this?
I mean I just spoke openly about how SDC and indeed any cryptocurrencies (or purely speculative assets) price can be manipulated in the short term.
Well SDC has an incredible value proposition that could generate and attract large amounts of non-speculative fiat currency into it's ecosystem. I already covered that in part 3a (https://www.reddit.com/Shadowcash/comments/5lhh6m/the_intelligent_investors_guide_to_cryptocurrency/).
For this reason I think the short term speculative pump and dumps in SDC will eventually be replaced by a more sustained, larger buy support. I suspect this will occur when the marketplace is released and certain other announcements are released.
For this reason I declare my opinion that Shadowcash is the best cryptocurrency investment of 2016 and I believe it will be again by March 2017.
...
References:
1. Coinmarketcap rankings: https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ 2. Coinmarketcap daily trading volumes https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/volume/24-hou 3. Bitinfocharts - Top 100 Richest Bitcoin addresses: https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html 4. Crypto ID - Shadowcash Rich list: https://chainz.cryptoid.info/sdc/#!rich 
...
Disclaimer: All prices and values given are as of time of writing (Midday 08-Jan-2016). I am not responsible for your financial decisions, nor am I advising you take a particular financial position. Rather I am sharing my experiences and hoping you form your own opinions and insights from them. Full disclosure: I have long positions in Ethereum (ETH), Shadowcash (SDC), ICONOMI (ICN), Augur (REP) and Digix (DGD).
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Dynamic RSI Pointer indicator for MetaTrader 4 Dynamic Stop Loss and Take Profit in Forex Trading McGinley Dynamic Trading Indicator Explained Easy What Navin Prithyani Learned From The Best Indicator ... How to Trade Range Markets like a Pro

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Dynamic RSI Pointer indicator for MetaTrader 4

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